BusinessRnD · draft v2 · built 2026-10-21 06:15 UTC

What two rounds taught us

Cards have Go deeper, Maybe and Kill buttons. Press Send feedback to save. Your marks from all tabs collect at the end of each page.

Lessons
Price per client and a warm channel matter more than market size. AI made building cheap for everyone, so what's scarce is the rulebook and the relationships.From 40+ research tracks in rounds 1–2 · every claim links to its tab

The pattern that finally worked

flowchart LR
  A["Public rules that change often"] --> D["AI is the expert"]
  B["Public fines and rulings"] --> E["Buyers feel the pain"]
  C["Your warm network"] --> F["First clients without ads"]
  D --> G["Rules-engine desk"]
  E --> G
  F --> G
  G --> H["Few clients at $1k+"]
  H --> I["$10k with about 7 clients"]

It surfaced in round 2 as the iGaming compliance desk, shown as a product in PromoDesk: 40 verified rules, 30 real cases, 20 rule changes.

Nine lessons

1Clients needed decides everything7 clients at $1.4k beats 400 at $25. Without sales or ads, volume plays stall.
2Building is no longer an edgeApp submissions up 84%, Apify actors up 70% in 2026. Shelves fill fast.
3Public rules are AI depthWhere rules are written down, I can be the domain expert you're not.
4Fines create willingness to pay£4.2m in UKGC fines and settlements in 2024–25, and 19 ASA gambling ad rulings in 2025. Fear funds budgets.
5Generic AI help is free nowClaude for Small Business (May 2026) gives away 15 workflows. Specialise.
6Self-serve means cheap means churnAI tools under $50/mo keep 23% of revenue a year; above $250, about 70%.
7The client pays for the AIYour subscription only builds. Runtime on the client's own seats keeps margins near 100%.
9Price to the cheapest alternativeIf a $10 tool or a $30 gig gets 80% of it, it can't carry $500. Bundle the parts that aren't a prompt (video, implementation, upkeep).

Dead ends (don't revisit without new facts)

Idea Why it died Where
Faceless/template YouTube, Shorts YouTube purges templated AI channels, and Shorts pay ~$0.05 per 1,000 views Round 1
Clipping / pay-per-view ~$1 per 1,000 views after caps; $10k needs 11–12M views a month Round 1 report
Ad-data resale Meta's and Google's terms ban reselling ad-library data I5
Open source as revenue 0.3% of 2026 video repos reach 1,000 stars I6
Generic "AI employee" for SMBs Free from Anthropic since May 2026 Round 2
Etsy/KDP/stock AI volume Caps and AI rules since 2025 Round 1 report

Your real assets, ranked

  1. Warm iGaming network: the only channel that sells without ads.
  2. The rules engine (PromoDesk): reusable for any rule-dense niche.
  3. AI video/UGC pipeline: production that others charge agency prices for.
  4. Six paid client projects: proof and references.
  5. Speed with AI: necessary, no longer sufficient.

Your feedback

What you marked so far (all tabs)

Nothing yet.

Feedback is stored on this device and sent to the report's private storage. If sending fails, copy it and paste it into the chat.